Trump Threatens to Resume Epic Fury, Axios Reports a Framework for a Deal
Oil prices and bond yields are lower on alleged progress.
Even Bigger Than Before
Truth Social: Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran. If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
May 06, 2026, 5:41 AM
Exactly what has Iran agreed to? But here are the rumors.
U.S. and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war, officials say
Axios reports U.S. and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war, officials say
The big picture: The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours. Nothing has been agreed yet, but the sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.
- Among other provisions, the deal would involve Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the U.S. agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Many of the terms laid out in the memo would be contingent on a final agreement being reached, leaving the possibility of renewed war or an extended limbo in which the hot war has stopped but nothing is truly resolved.
Reality check: The White House believes the Iranian leadership is divided and it may be hard to forge consensus across the different factions. Some U.S. officials remain skeptical that even an initial deal will be reached.
- U.S. officials have expressed optimism about a deal at several points during previous rounds of negotiations and during the current war, but have yet to reach one.
- But the two U.S. officials said President Trump’s decision to back off his newly announced operation in the Strait of Hormuz and avoid a collapse of the fragile ceasefire was based on progress in the talks.
Behind the scenes: The one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) is being negotiated between Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and several Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators.
- In its current form, the MOU would declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations on a detailed agreement to open the strait, limit Iran’s nuclear program and lift U.S. sanctions.
- Those negotiations could happen in Islamabad or Geneva, two sources said.
- Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the strait and the U.S. naval blockade would be gradually lifted during that 30-day period, according to a U.S. official.
- If the negotiations collapse, U.S. forces would be able to restore the blockade or resume military action, the U.S. official said.
Zoom in: The duration of the moratorium on uranium enrichment is being actively negotiated, with three sources saying it would be at least 12 years and one putting 15 as a likely landing spot. Iran proposed a 5-year moratorium on enrichment and the U.S. demanded 20.
- Iran would commit in the MOU to never seek a nuclear weapon or conduct weaponization-related activities. According to a U.S. official, the parties are discussing a clause whereby Iran would commit not to operate underground nuclear facilities.
- Iran would also commit to an enhanced inspections regime, including snap inspections by UN inspectors, according to the U.S. official.
- The U.S. would commit as part of the MOU to a gradual lifting of the sanctions imposed on Iran and the gradual release of billions of dollars in Iranian funds that are frozen around the world.
What they’re saying: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that “we don’t have to have the actual agreement written in one day.”
- “This is highly complex and technical. But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on and the extent of the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make it worthwhile,” he added.
- But Rubio also called some of Iran’s top leaders “insane in the brain” and said it was unclear whether they would make a deal.
Strait Still Closed
WSJ: Ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday received verbal warnings from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ navy, which said the waterway remains blocked.
A recording of the message was received by the Greek owner of a ship waiting to cross the strait and was viewed by The Wall Street Journal.
The message, in English, warned all vessels in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman that any approaching the strait without permission or outside the specified route, “will be targeted.” The owner said the ship was acting on the warning.
Iran’s state broadcaster said around 1,500 vessels are currently on their way to cross the Strait of Hormuz, and added that they wouldn’t be able to make the voyage without permission from the Revolutionary Guard.
Iran Portrays Pause as US Climb Down
WSJ: While President Trump said he had “mutually agreed” to a pause in the U.S. operation to guide commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state media characterized the move as a climb down because of Tehran’s dominance of the critical chokepoint. Trump paused the mission “after American forces failed to secure passage of vessels without Iran’s permission,” Iran’s state-owned Press TV said.
Iranian hard-line lawmaker Mahmoud Nabavian said the decision represented a failure for the Americans. “Another humiliating defeat for the evil American regime against the great nation of Iran,” he said. Trump said in a Truth Social post that “Great Progress” toward a peace agreement with Iran meant he would pause the 48-hour old initiative. The Iranian ambassador to Pakistan reposted Trump’s message, adding “Once beaten, twice shy.”
Shippers Say Project Freedom Lacked Clarity
WSJ: A day after President Trump pulled the plug on the U.S. effort to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, shipowners and brokers said the initiative lacked clarity and sufficient security guarantees, adding that ships have moved clear of the waterway to avoid coming under attack.
In online chats among Greek, German and Nordic shipowners the U.S. effort, which Trump called “Project Freedom,” was parodied as “Project Taco,” shorthand for Trump Always Chickens Out, and “Project Pause.” Trump said Tuesday he had agreed to pause the operation after a request from Pakistan and other countries, to give space for negotiations. The shipowners said they wouldn’t attempt any transits until there was a peace deal.
Two American-flagged ships were led out from the strait under Project Freedom, before it was paused on Tuesday, less than 48 hours after it went into effect. Lloyd’s List Intelligence data show transits falling to 36 crossings in the past six days, down from 44 the previous week. Most of those vessels are local trade and aren’t targeted by either Iran or the U.S.
There’s never any believable clarity from this administration, only lies.
Oil and Bond Yields Down
More amazing manipulations.
Treasury Yields
Who’s In Control?
This Was Supposed to be Over in 3-5 Days
Reflections on Iran’s “Only Weapon”
Framework for Negotiation
There is no deal. But assume for a second there is a framework for negotiation.
The negotiation will take months, not weeks.
Q: And what will the US have accomplished?
A: The US will accept the deal that was on the table before Trump started this idiotic war. That deal will be no better than what Obama negotiated in 2015.
Trump Cancels “Operation Freedom” But We Have a new Goal
Yesterday, I commented Trump Cancels “Operation Freedom” But We Have a new Goal
It took all of one day for Operation Freedom to fail.
Rubio: “The facts clearly bear out, the United States of America holds all the cards. … Our preference is for the Strait to be open, to the way it’s supposed to be, back to the way it was. … That’s what we have to get back to, and that’s the goal here.”
The new goal is to return to the status quo of things before Trump started this stupid war,
Infrastructure damage is massive and there would only be a gradual release of oil through the strait, assuming there is a deal and it holds.
Gasoline prices will remain elevated, so will fertilizer and aluminum prices.
Trump will have effectively lost the war. It will show up at the midterm elections.